Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a46…f14a other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 235L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$41
sports 22% −$21
politics 11% −$9
crypto 6% −$6
culture 6% −$5
economics 4% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage142d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $780 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $880 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $541 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $667 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $186 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $606 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $511 +$2 +0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $709 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $395 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $330 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $805 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 14h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 19h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 21h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 21h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 24h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 31h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 32h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 34h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 38h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 40h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 42h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 47h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1453 history records