Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8a42…0f71 crypto 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,202 (-6%) realized −$7,200 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%308W / 474L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -39.1% -44.9% 32% 32% -74.8%
≤30d 640 -32.0% -38.4% 36% 35% -64.7%
≤90d 782 -27.0% -33.9% 39% 39% -32.4%
all 782 -27.0% -33.9% 39% 39% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 39% -32.4%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 38% -38.9%
15% -46.0% 38% -44.8%
20% -51.3% 37% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$153 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$7,200
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses308 / 474
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)782 / 640
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 59¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 457 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $212 −$212 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $412 −$412 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $359 −$359 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $265 −$265 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $777 −$777 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $436 −$436 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $194 −$194 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $194 −$194 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $583 −$583 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $338 −$338 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.71 · official $7.54 (match) · 3500 history records