Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8A 0x8a40…27c9 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$986 (-10%) realized −$983 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%37W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$986
crypto 41% $0
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -22.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -29.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -36.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$987 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$2,563
Realized−$983
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses37 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage614d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,288 $1,286 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $771 $771 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $507 $507 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Feb 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $134 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 16 $142 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 30 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,020 −$987 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $771 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $507 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,288 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 100d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 100d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $6 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $7 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 274d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 274d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $3 274d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 274d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $4 274d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 274d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Trump out as President by September 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 274d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 12 to September 19, BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 12 to September 19, BUY No 100¢ $2 274d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $129 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,563.42 · official $2,563.42 (match) · 82 history records