Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a40…f518 crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,370 (-15%) realized −$1,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%106W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$232
14 days−$757
30 days−$1,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,313
crypto 45% −$388
politics 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -46.9% -52.0% 29% 29% -51.8%
≤30d 220 -20.2% -27.8% 45% 36% -29.6%
≤90d 235 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 37% -28.0%
all 235 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 37% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 37% -28.0%
10% -33.9% 29% -34.9%
15% -40.3% 24% -41.2%
20% -46.1% 20% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses106 / 129
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage35d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $28 −$26 -91%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $49 −$21 -43%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$18 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -58%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $77 −$16 -21%
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Tabilo Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $45 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$27 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$29 +70%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $115 −$74 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $55 −$39 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $56 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $116 −$43 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $74 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $49 +$25 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $38 +$45 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $49 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $66 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $67 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $49 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $51 +$21 +41%
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $33 +$18 +54%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $45 +$24 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 4¢ $2 52m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $28 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 33¢ $28 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 56¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $28 19h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 23¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $12 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 33¢ $61 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $77 3d
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Tabilo BUY Tabilo 52¢ $29 4d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 4d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 58¢ $48 4d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $41 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 44¢ $14 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 62¢ $54 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 670 history records