trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -9.1% | -17.8% | 11% | 11% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -9.1% | -17.8% | 11% | 11% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | -6.9% | -15.7% | 38% | 12% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.7% | 12% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -31.2% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 03 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +19% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 01 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 29 | $36 | −$1 | -3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | May 26 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | May 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 21 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 16 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | May 16 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 15 | $11 | +$2 | +15% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? | Mar 30 | $3 | −$1 | -35% |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $15 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? | Mar 27 | $14 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 21 | $15 | $0 | -1% |