Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a3d…7ed7 politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
other 40% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage107d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 20 $103 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $103 12h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 24h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $103 35h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 9d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 31d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 34d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 35d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 35d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 35d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 38d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $103 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $103 42d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 45d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 45d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $105 62d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $105 63d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 66d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 66d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 70d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 70d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 70d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 72d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 73d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records