Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a39…14c8 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-5%) realized −$63 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$68
sports 21% +$1
world 11% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$61 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,348
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $228 $227 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $163 $164 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 89¢ 88¢ $161 $159 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $152 $153 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $152 $153 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 69¢ 70¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 53¢ $107 $103 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 26¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 18¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $62 −$61 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,347.88 · official $1,347.88 (match) · 12 history records