Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8A 0x8a39…693c sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$44 · open −$44

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-56.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-52.0%	-56.5%	0%	0%	-66.0%
≤30d	2	-52.0%	-56.5%	0%	0%	-66.0%
≤90d	2	-52.0%	-56.5%	0%	0%	-66.0%
all	2	-52.0%	-56.5%	0%	0%	-66.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.5%	0%	-66.0%
10%	-60.7%	0%	-69.3%
15%	-64.5%	0%	-72.3%
20%	-68.0%	0%	-75.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -62% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$41 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$256

Realized+$44

Unrealized−$44

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Over	57¢	56¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	Athletics	45¢	44¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins	Texas Rangers	40¢	40¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5	Over	52¢	50¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	6¢	$50	$9	−$41 (-82%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$81	−$80	-99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	Jun 23	$51	−$2	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$2	9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$34	10m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$65	16m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	58¢	$35	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$45	1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5	BUY Over	52¢	$34	1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5	BUY Over	51¢	$16	2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	$51	2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins	BUY Texas Rangers	40¢	$51	2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY Athletics	45¢	$51	2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	SELL Walczaki	50¢	$49	3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	BUY Walczaki	51¢	$26	4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B	BUY Walczaki	50¢	$25	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.67 · official $255.69 (match) · 13 history records