Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a38…cf7b world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$7
other 20% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 8% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 25% 0% -11.0%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $43 −$4 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $33 −$4 -12%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Jan 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 -2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 25 $3 $0 +10%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $40 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $33 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $3 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $13 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $12 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.29 · official $40.29 (match) · 125 history records