Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

8A 0x8a38…513a other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2,021 (+61%) realized +$2,003 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$470per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-14.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-5.0%	-14.1%	33%	17%	+38.5%
≤30d	6	-5.0%	-14.1%	33%	17%	+38.5%
≤90d	6	-5.0%	-14.1%	33%	17%	+38.5%
all	6	-5.0%	-14.1%	33%	17%	+38.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.1%	17%	+38.5%
10%	-22.3%	17%	+25.3%
15%	-29.8%	17%	+13.2%
20%	-36.7%	17%	+2.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +53% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,232 vs −$194 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized+$2,003

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage14d

Avg bet$470

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	Yes	9¢	10¢	$100	$118	+$18 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$532	−$91	-17%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 26	$90	−$90	-100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 26	$211	−$211	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$383	−$383	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$849	+$2,347	+276%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$1,116	+$116	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	9¢	$107	57m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	SELL Yes	17¢	$442	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$532	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$849	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	4¢	$64	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	29¢	$318	21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1,232	21h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$90	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	11¢	$201	2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$267	9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$450	10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$399	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.95 · official $117.95 (match) · 30 history records