Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a36…3d5a sports 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,370 (-81%) realized −$2,370 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$2
14 days+$25
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,370
politics 15% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 40% -19.7%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 47% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 47% -9.6%
all 22 -9.2% -17.9% 45% 41% -83.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 41% -83.3%
10% -25.7% 41% -84.9%
15% -32.9% 36% -86.3%
20% -39.5% 27% -87.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$201 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$2,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage137d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $3 +$3 +113%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $7 +$4 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 08 $4 +$2 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $6 +$2 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $7 +$4 +49%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $6 +$5 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 08 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $433 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 07 $2 +$5 +265%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5 Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $19 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Jan 30 $2,351 −$2,351 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $5 43h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 36¢ $2 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $8 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $3 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $7 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 10d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $4 13d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $0 14d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $4 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $0 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $0 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 18d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $6 23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 25d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 53¢ $6 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $433 31d
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5 BUY Over 55¢ $19 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 91d
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 51¢ $82 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.39 · official $18.39 (match) · 68 history records