Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a32…fb58 other 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 249L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 26% −$25
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
world 4% −$8
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage135d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $812 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $350 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $305 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $332 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $688 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $545 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $321 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $434 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $313 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 6m
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 1h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 3h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 7h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 9h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 9h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 13h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 14h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 16h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 18h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 44h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 46h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 47h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.00 · official $53.00 (match) · 1450 history records