Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a31…a9b9 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$67 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%6W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$19
politics 45% −$6
sports 8% +$91
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -15.2% -23.2% 22% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 11% -7.9%
10% -30.6% 11% -16.7%
15% -37.3% 11% -24.7%
20% -43.4% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$7 · ×4.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses6 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage633d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $671 $671 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $362 $362 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $4 +$5 +127%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $133 +$97 +73%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $101 +$101 +100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $17 −$17 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $362 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $671 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 24h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $446 24h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $589 24h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $590 34h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $446 34h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 34h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 2d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $11 281d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $4 283d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 334d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 342d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 366d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 401d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 402d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 404d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $6 405d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 405d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 406d
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 408d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 409d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $6 412d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 413d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 415d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.48 · official $1,032.48 (match) · 56 history records