Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a2e…8dc9 world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$9
other 15% +$9
politics 6% $0
finance 3% +$4
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 20% -8.3%
≤30d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 3% -9.6%
all 64 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage294d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $21 −$2 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $60 +$8 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $362 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $181 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $85 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $164 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $156 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $119 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $80 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $167 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $81 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $25 −$4 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $19 −$5 -26%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $68 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox & Friends appearance o Sep 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $53 +$9 +17%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 360 and 379 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $83 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $19 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $66 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $81 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $56 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $59 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $79 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $86 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $86 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $64 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $86 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $79 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $79 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.69 · official $81.69 (match) · 217 history records