Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a2e…31fa crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$227 (-11%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$653
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -32.7% -39.1% 44% 40% -41.3%
≤30d 25 -32.7% -39.1% 44% 40% -41.3%
≤90d 25 -32.7% -39.1% 44% 40% -41.3%
all 25 -32.7% -39.1% 44% 40% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.1% 40% -41.3%
10% ← realistic here -44.9% 20% -46.9%
15% -50.2% 8% -52.1%
20% -55.1% 4% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$60 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $206 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $210 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $317 −$307 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $114 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $207 +$56 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$21 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $107 +$36 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$96 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records