Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a2a…60b7 politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$5
other 33% −$5
world 23% −$3
culture 7% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,005) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage82d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,291 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 23 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Jun 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $994 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 14 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? Apr 03 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $57 6m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 16m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 24m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 49m
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,327 56m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,296 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $988 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $302 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,291 2h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $1,275 34h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? SELL No 100¢ $19 34h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,248 34h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? BUY No 100¢ $19 35h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $968 35h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $29 35h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $32 35h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 36h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 36d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 36d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 36d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 36d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records