Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a25…ba81
weather · 316 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,080 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,004 · open −$77
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$3,004
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses225 / 129
Open positions3
Markets (closed)354 / 316
History coverage13d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day258.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,455
7 days−$3,218
14 days−$3,004
30 days−$3,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 69¢ 67¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? No 70¢ 1¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? No 55¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? No 89¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? No 84¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? No 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? No 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 23? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29? No 85¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? No 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? No 97¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10? No 91¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 11? No 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? Jun 12 $66 −$397 -599%
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Jun 12 $55 −$45 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? Jun 12 $10 −$21 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29? Jun 12 $119 −$124 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10? Jun 12 $20 −$54 -270%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 11? Jun 12 $9 −$10 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? Jun 12 $14 −$16 -120%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? Jun 12 $19 −$22 -112%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $64 −$54 -85%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 29? Jun 12 $34 −$19 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 28? Jun 12 $131 −$131 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 26? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 12? Jun 12 $49 −$47 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? Jun 12 $314 −$645 -205%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on May 23? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? Jun 12 $245 −$245 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? Jun 12 $121 −$261 -216%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 9? Jun 12 $28 −$78 -278%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? Jun 12 $168 −$289 -173%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 27? Jun 12 $154 −$189 -122%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $230 +$37 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 −$30 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $285 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 +$17 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $182 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% +$50
other 6% +$39
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $21 11m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $7 23m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $12 50m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 82¢ $31 50m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? SELL Yes 69¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? SELL Yes 70¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 80¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 82¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 53¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 53¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -22.7% -30.1% 55% 13% -18.1%
≤30d 354 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 13% -14.1%
≤90d 354 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 13% -14.1%
all 354 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 13% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover258.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 13% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 6% -22.3%
15% -32.4% 5% -29.8%
20% -39.0% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.72 · official $20.72 (match) · 3500 history records