Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8a21…fec3 other 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-4%) realized −$159 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%74W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$5
tech 25% −$7
politics 14% +$5
finance 7% −$33
crypto 2% −$71
world 2% +$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -15.8%
≤30d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 13% -18.4%
≤90d 113 -16.2% -24.2% 26% 16% -22.7%
all 168 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 29% -11.9%
10% -16.9% 20% -20.4%
15% -24.9% 17% -28.1%
20% -32.3% 14% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses74 / 94
Open positions30
Markets (closed)168 / 198
History coverage229d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 16 $172 −$16 -9%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $84 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Jun 08 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31? Jun 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? Jun 02 $0 $0 -41%
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +10%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Jun 01 $67 −$4 -6%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31? May 30 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31? May 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31? May 27 $25 −$5 -22%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? May 27 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? May 27 $0 $0 -4%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? May 27 $14 $0 +4%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? May 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? May 26 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? May 26 $13 −$7 -56%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 25 $45 −$6 -14%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? May 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? May 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? May 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30? May 21 $12 −$6 -53%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30? May 21 $7 −$1 -14%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? May 21 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? May 21 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? May 21 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? May 21 $12 −$3 -23%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? May 21 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? May 21 $10 −$2 -21%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? May 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31? May 20 $8 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? May 20 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? May 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 20 $49 −$16 -33%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 20 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? May 20 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? May 20 $0 $0 +68%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31? May 19 $7 +$2 +21%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? May 19 $12 −$5 -42%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? May 19 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? May 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 19 $26 −$3 -12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? May 19 $13 +$5 +38%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? May 19 $2 +$2 +67%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31? May 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? May 19 $24 −$8 -32%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 19 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 8h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 9h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 10h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 13h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 13h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 14h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 14h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 14h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 14h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 15h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 20h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 20h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 23h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 23h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 24h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 25h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.66 · official $198.66 (match) · 3039 history records