Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

8A 0x8a20…394f crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$1,358 (+37%) realized +$1,024 · open +$334

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$148per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$908now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$471

7 days−$273

14 days−$235

30 days−$235

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-39.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-31.3%	-37.8%	43%	29%	-26.8%
≤30d	20	-32.9%	-39.3%	45%	30%	-18.9%
≤90d	20	-32.9%	-39.3%	45%	30%	-18.9%
all	20	-32.9%	-39.3%	45%	30%	-18.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.3%	30%	-18.9%
10%	-45.1%	30%	-26.7%
15%	-50.4%	15%	-33.8%
20%	-55.3%	0%	-40.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late -55% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$66 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$908

Realized+$1,024

Unrealized+$334

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage29d

Avg bet$148

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	35¢	90¢	$230	$591	+$361 (+157%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$240	$223	−$17 (-7%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	55¢	56¢	$82	$85	+$2 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$13	$7	−$6 (-44%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	12¢	3¢	$8	$2	−$6 (-78%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 26	$205	−$96	-47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 26	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 26	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 26	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$2	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 26	$105	−$89	-85%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Jun 26	$100	−$9	-9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 25	$53	−$6	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 25	$104	−$5	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 25	$101	+$10	+10%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?	Jun 24	$8	+$2	+33%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5	Jun 24	$102	+$30	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$1	+3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Jun 21	$458	+$197	+43%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 16	$105	+$7	+7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$202	−$200	-99%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer	Jun 15	$497	+$239	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL Yes	11¢	$194	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	57¢	$101	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$103	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$104	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$104	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$104	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Up	5¢	$16	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	SELL No	51¢	$91	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	15¢	$500	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY No	56¢	$100	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Up	8¢	$18	18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$27	18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$42	18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	SELL Down	48¢	$99	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$104	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Down	90¢	$112	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$101	18h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	SELL Yes	91¢	$622	41h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5	BUY Over	77¢	$102	42h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY Yes	55¢	$84	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$27	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	SELL Yes	82¢	$541	3d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	BUY Yes	12¢	$8	3d
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	BUY Yes	3¢	$13	3d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?	BUY Yes	74¢	$8	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $908.03 · official $908.04 (match) · 58 history records