Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8A 0x8a1f…a962 sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$581 (+14%) realized +$590 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%27W / 25L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days+$752
14 days+$992
30 days+$992
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,144
other 13% −$91
world 2% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.3% -1.1% 61% 61% +41.2%
≤30d 52 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 52% +17.7%
≤90d 52 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 52% +17.7%
all 52 +11.3% +0.7% 52% 52% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 52% +17.7%
10% -8.9% 52% +6.4%
15% -17.7% 52% -3.8%
20% -25.8% 44% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized+$590
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses27 / 25
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 64
History coverage14d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 46¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $152 +$111 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: Jun 27 $200 +$210 +105%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $304 +$205 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 +$31 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$30 +73%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$80 +197%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 +$46 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 +$129 +181%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 +$102 +72%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 +$94 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 +$104 +146%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: Jun 16 $51 +$242 +473%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 +$46 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $51 18m
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 46¢ $51 4h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 38h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $152 38h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 27¢ $50 40h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: BUY 48¢ $200 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY 38¢ $200 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes $31 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 52¢ $20 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $20 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $20 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $71 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $51 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $51 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $51 7d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $5 8d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.93 · official $289.38 (match) · 107 history records