Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8A 0x8a1e…bd03 world 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$516 (-1%) realized +$902 · open −$1,418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%71W / 200L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$3,396
14 days−$1,670
30 days+$4,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$4,020
politics 7% −$1,903
other 7% −$1,672
tech 1% −$286
finance 1% −$296
sports 1% −$61
crypto 1% −$143
weather 0% −$75
economics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -41.8% -47.3% 16% 12% -39.3%
≤30d 130 +12.2% +1.5% 28% 23% +1.5%
≤90d 213 -7.6% -16.4% 24% 21% -6.4%
all 271 -3.5% -12.7% 26% 23% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 23% -8.8%
10% -21.0% 20% -17.5%
15% -28.7% 17% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -32% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$98 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$1,654
Realized+$902
Unrealized−$1,418
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses71 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions29
Markets (closed)271 / 300
History coverage366d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $130 $193 +$63 (+48%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $275 $166 −$109 (-40%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $105 $112 +$7 (+6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $60 $110 +$50 (+83%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $166 $82 −$84 (-50%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $130 $72 −$58 (-45%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $124 $70 −$54 (-44%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $85 $69 −$16 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $280 $57 −$223 (-80%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $103 $52 −$51 (-50%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $540 $50 −$490 (-91%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $66 $48 −$18 (-28%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 82¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $160 $32 −$128 (-80%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 4¢ $200 $20 −$180 (-90%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 7¢ $100 $19 −$81 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $175 −$32 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 15 $870 −$641 -74%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $26 −$21 -82%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 15 $144 −$138 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $102 −$16 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,042 −$1,377 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 14 $50 −$35 -70%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $100 −$87 -87%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $970 −$668 -69%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $50 −$37 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $200 −$199 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $3,230 +$164 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $350 −$138 -39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $950 −$155 -16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $600 −$52 -9%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $65 +$25 +38%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $87 +$244 +280%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 09 $141 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 09 $520 +$46 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $70 −$70 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 09 $469 −$375 -80%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $250 −$126 -50%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $102 +$101 +99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $50 +$72 +143%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $300 +$200 +67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,200 +$805 +67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $710 +$244 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $50 +$142 +284%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $500 +$612 +122%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1,000 +$287 +29%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 07 $90 +$36 +40%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $27 +$10 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $600 +$389 +65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $193 −$95 -49%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,020 −$3 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $41 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 11h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $143 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $15 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $40 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $69 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $16 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No 1¢ $15 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $6 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 0¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $126 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $150 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $212 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $95 6d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $300 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,653.50 · official $1,652.95 (match) · 1238 history records