Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a1a…902c crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-18%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$131
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$242
sports 27% +$14
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.9% -32.9% 68% 21% -35.8%
≤30d 19 -25.9% -32.9% 68% 21% -35.8%
≤90d 19 -25.9% -32.9% 68% 21% -35.8%
all 35 -20.5% -28.1% 57% 26% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 26% -27.4%
10% -35.0% 20% -34.3%
15% -41.3% 11% -40.7%
20% -47.0% 11% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage246d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $43 +$2 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $38 +$5 +13%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 +$9 +29%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $89 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Oct 18 $4 +$3 +82%
Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Oct 18 $54 −$50 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Oct 18 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Oct 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Oct 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Oct 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Oct 18 $13 −$9 -66%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Oct 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Oct 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Oct 17 $20 +$29 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Oct 17 $78 +$59 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 17 $21 +$59 +281%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $43 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 78¢ $43 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $38 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 96¢ $9 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $118 147d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 75¢ $45 147d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 75¢ $44 147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 245d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 245d
Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2025-10-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records