Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a19…073d weather 897 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,573 (+2%) realized +$2,478 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%716W / 174L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$17
14 days−$36
30 days+$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$3,496
other 7% −$96
tech 2% −$498
politics 2% +$109
sports 1% −$81
world 0% −$203
crypto 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.7% -30.0% 73% 9% -8.4%
≤30d 139 -5.2% -14.2% 87% 9% -8.3%
≤90d 715 +2.5% -7.3% 84% 12% -7.7%
all 890 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 13% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 8% -16.9%
15% -25.5% 6% -24.9%
20% -32.8% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$27 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,157
Realized+$2,478
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses716 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)890 / 897
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$176
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $980 $984 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $457 $462 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? No 60¢ 100¢ $174 $288 +$113 (+65%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $278 $190 −$88 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? No 87¢ 100¢ $145 $167 +$22 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Yes 24¢ 81¢ $12 $40 +$28 (+239%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $200 +$2 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$10 +5%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $331 +$93 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 19 $102 −$99 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $205 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $125 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $271 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $104 −$58 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $460 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $382 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $566 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $159 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $236 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $118 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$2 +2%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $389 +$11 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $327 +$3 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$3 -19%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $254 +$2 +1%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $910 +$4 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $96 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $40 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $485 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $859 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $667 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $134 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$11 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 44¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 49¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 79¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 66¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $434 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $126 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $146 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $497 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 4d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $3 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 7d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $8 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $117 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 36¢ $46 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $51 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $153 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,156.79 · official $2,156.79 (match) · 3500 history records