Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a18…44e3
crypto · 191 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$83 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$8
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses107 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)183 / 191
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 8 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$70
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$58
weather 3% −$6
other 2% −$9
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 48% -15.0%
≤30d 183 -9.9% -18.4% 58% 46% -18.5%
≤90d 183 -9.9% -18.4% 58% 46% -18.5%
all 183 -9.9% -18.4% 58% 46% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 46% -18.5%
10% -26.3% 36% -26.3%
15% -33.4% 30% -33.4%
20% -39.9% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.26 · official $8.27 (match) · 343 history records