Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8a17…2560 politics 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$889 (-5%) realized −$1,148 · open +$259
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$26
14 days−$16
30 days−$1,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$234
other 26% −$504
finance 9% +$45
world 4% +$71
economics 4% −$65
sports 3% −$199
crypto 2% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.4% -37.9% 50% 50% -17.2%
≤30d 12 -19.0% -26.8% 50% 42% -40.1%
≤90d 24 -19.3% -27.0% 54% 50% -33.7%
all 44 -15.7% -23.8% 55% 48% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 48% -19.1%
10% -31.1% 34% -26.9%
15% -37.7% 23% -33.9%
20% -43.8% 11% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$202 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$4,324
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized+$259
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)44 / 59
History coverage293d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 68¢ 90¢ $1,151 $1,517 +$366 (+32%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $600 $667 +$67 (+11%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $457 $471 +$13 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 72¢ 75¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $80 $187 +$107 (+134%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 78¢ 68¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $147 $169 +$22 (+15%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? Yes 50¢ $200 $12 −$188 (-94%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? Yes 46¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-87%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $30 $4 −$26 (-88%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $203 +$76 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 08 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $502 −$19 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $205 −$134 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Jun 01 $200 +$79 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 27 $300 +$87 +29%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 27 $1,134 −$1,130 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $300 +$134 +45%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 27 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 22 $114 −$30 -26%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April me May 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $500 +$120 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 23 $100 −$61 -61%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $400 +$199 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $199 +$107 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $300 +$90 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$19 +19%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 21 $520 +$132 +25%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 13 $100 −$15 -15%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Mar 09 $200 +$38 +19%
Maduro out in 2025? Mar 09 $200 +$38 +19%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 07 $100 +$51 +51%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 02 $100 +$244 +244%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Feb 16 $200 +$19 +9%
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? Feb 12 $305 +$32 +10%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meetin Feb 05 $550 +$326 +59%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 21 $350 −$192 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election? Jan 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Cambio por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election? Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 23? Jan 07 $100 +$45 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? Dec 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $1,594 +$816 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? Dec 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 29 $100 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 58¢ $102 1h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $102 1h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 56¢ $102 1h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 55¢ $7 1h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 53¢ $102 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 88¢ $101 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 69¢ $102 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 78¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 90¢ $100 6d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 75¢ $101 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $211 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $31 7d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $31 10d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $201 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $438 10d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $52 17d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $71 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco BUY Yes 87¢ $201 21d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 21d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 72¢ $202 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 68¢ $346 21d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 73¢ $131 21d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $85 27d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 72¢ $303 35d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 37d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 41¢ $118 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,324.45 · official $4,292.07 (match) · 178 history records