Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8A 0x8a15…aefc crypto 883 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%395W / 487L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$23
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$172
world 0% −$2
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -0.9% -10.3% 37% 20% -9.7%
≤30d 262 -7.0% -15.9% 42% 33% -12.9%
≤90d 848 -5.0% -14.0% 43% 32% -18.3%
all 882 +4.2% -5.7% 45% 35% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 35% -14.2%
10% -14.7% 30% -22.4%
15% -23.0% 24% -29.9%
20% -30.5% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses395 / 487
Open positions1
Markets (closed)882 / 883
History coverage112d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 44¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 36¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.81 · official $2.83 (match) · 2641 history records