Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a14…1f7d crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-23%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$39
crypto 30% +$11
finance 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 77% 8% -31.4%
≤30d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 77% 8% -31.4%
≤90d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 77% 8% -31.4%
all 13 -5.7% -14.7% 77% 8% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -31.4%
10% -22.8% 8% -37.9%
15% -30.3% 8% -43.9%
20% -37.1% 8% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Down 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Down 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Up 99¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +208%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.60 · official $6.60 (match) · 30 history records