Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a12…dfa3 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,463 (-7%) realized −$1,459 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 60L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$36
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$124
other 27% −$3
crypto 13% −$1,064
sports 3% −$50
economics 1% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +36.8% +23.7% 23% 23% -19.4%
≤30d 38 +1.1% -8.5% 16% 16% -25.3%
≤90d 50 -3.4% -12.6% 18% 16% -24.2%
all 89 -8.9% -17.6% 33% 20% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 20% -15.7%
10% -25.5% 16% -23.8%
15% -32.7% 10% -31.1%
20% -39.3% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$35 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage645d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $213 −$95 -45%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$28 +550%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$48 +937%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $101 −$10 -10%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 15 $111 −$23 -20%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 15 $100 −$11 -11%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $50 −$5 -9%
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $50 −$6 -12%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $130 +$3 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 14 $150 −$25 -17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $155 −$5 -4%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $51 −$2 -5%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 05 $50 −$50 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 27 $100 +$21 +21%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 27 $100 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 22¢ $5 45h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $5 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $5 45h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 19¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 11¢ $5 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $5 6d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.78 · official $35.69 (match) · 284 history records