Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8a0f…c8a5 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$167 (-6%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%34W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$182
crypto 23% +$15
other 19% $0
politics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 5 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤90d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.5%
all 44 -0.5% -10.0% 77% 0% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -15.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -23.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -30.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses34 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage558d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 93¢ 93¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Penguins vs. Predators Nov 14 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? Oct 26 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 26 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 28 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 28 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 28 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 22 $15 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 17 $232 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 17 $235 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $35 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $16 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $18 33d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $16 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $17 64d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $17 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $15 122d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 122d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $17 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 183d
Penguins vs. Predators BUY Penguins 55¢ $182 226d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $24 245d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $15 245d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 98¢ $20 275d
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? BUY No 97¢ $18 275d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 98¢ $16 304d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 97¢ $21 304d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 92¢ $12 339d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $24 339d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 365d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $16 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 94¢ $18 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $14 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $19 431d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.68 · official $30.72 (match) · 94 history records