Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a0d…e395 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$7
economics 28% +$2
politics 17% +$12
world 8% +$1
tech 8% −$1
sports 5% −$79
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 31 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 23% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 23% -11.1%
10% -17.9% 16% -19.6%
15% -25.9% 6% -27.4%
20% -33.1% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage607d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 22 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $104 −$9 -9%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 24 $98 $0 -0%
Bulls vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $97 −$97 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $271 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 22 $271 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $270 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 10 $126 +$14 +12%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 26 $83 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $200 +$7 +3%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $47 +$17 +35%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 11 $357 −$24 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 05 $116 +$21 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 04 $115 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Oct 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Sep 30 $10 +$4 +45%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Sep 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin up on Nov 6? Oct 25 $20 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $199 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $200 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $238 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $238 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $248 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $248 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $99 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $100 27d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $195 31d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $196 32d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $94 45d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 45d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia SELL Yes 98¢ $98 90d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 98¢ $83 92d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 98¢ $14 92d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY Yes 98¢ $1 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $100 97d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 118d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 119d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? SELL Yes 75¢ $271 183d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY Yes 75¢ $271 185d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 72¢ $79 209d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft BUY Yes 90¢ $126 213d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 71¢ $41 214d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 81¢ $42 215d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 97¢ $200 216d
Bulls vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 88¢ $97 218d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $24 219d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $23 219d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 89¢ $3 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records