Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a0d…82c9 sports 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,965 (-8%) realized −$2,956 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%129W / 142L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$2,859
crypto 32% −$10
other 7% −$87
world 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 43 +2.9% -6.9% 56% 56% -15.0%
≤90d 174 -20.1% -27.7% 46% 37% -18.2%
all 271 -16.8% -24.8% 48% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 41% -17.0%
10% -32.0% 37% -24.9%
15% -38.5% 35% -32.2%
20% -44.6% 29% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$84 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$440
Realized−$2,956
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses129 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions3
Markets (closed)271 / 274
History coverage97d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $225 $219 −$6 (-3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Over $178 $170 −$8 (-5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 60¢ $46 $51 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 07 $81 +$50 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $254 −$250 -99%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $224 −$220 -98%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 02 $112 −$6 -5%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 02 $36 +$52 +146%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 02 $41 +$70 +172%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 01 $111 +$56 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $138 +$47 +34%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $30 −$30 -98%
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 01 $46 −$45 -98%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 01 $152 −$150 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $254 +$246 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 29 $108 +$37 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $70 +$25 +36%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $77 +$67 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $88 +$76 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $93 +$71 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $50 +$42 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $63 +$31 +50%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 25 $74 −$73 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $63 −$62 -99%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 25 $74 +$85 +116%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 25 $47 −$46 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $56 −$55 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 25 $58 −$58 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $59 −$58 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $62 −$60 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $53 +$37 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $81 +$76 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 25 $85 +$79 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $50 +$42 +83%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $55 +$49 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $61 +$43 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $63 −$62 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $64 −$63 -99%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $56 −$55 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $45 +$39 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $54 +$30 +57%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $46 +$29 +65%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $40 −$40 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 23 $18 −$18 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $44 −$43 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $183 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $230 1h
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 52¢ $254 15d
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 68¢ $202 19d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 35¢ $224 19d
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog BUY Tamara Zidansek 52¢ $112 20d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 47¢ $30 20d
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski BUY Akira Santillan 67¢ $101 20d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu BUY Falcons Force 40¢ $36 20d
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Taylah Preston 61¢ $81 20d
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 43¢ $46 20d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 65¢ $152 20d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla BUY ReThink 36¢ $41 20d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Minnesota Lynx 66¢ $111 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 74¢ $138 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 50¢ $254 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado BUY Martin Landaluce 74¢ $108 27d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOUD 46¢ $43 28d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $63 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 53¢ $77 28d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOUD 46¢ $31 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 56¢ $93 28d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $88 28d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 51¢ $47 28d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $50 28d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 59¢ $56 28d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 62¢ $58 28d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ $63 28d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ $70 28d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $51 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.55 · official $439.55 (match) · 570 history records