Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a0c…6c72 crypto 514 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,308 (-4%) realized −$1,307 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%266W / 247L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1,391
crypto 26% +$9
world 4% +$35
other 1% +$22
politics 0% −$52
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 39% -2.5%
≤30d 18 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 39% -2.5%
≤90d 138 -26.6% -33.6% 43% 30% -14.1%
all 513 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 35% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 35% -13.0%
10% -29.7% 25% -21.3%
15% -36.5% 19% -28.9%
20% -42.7% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,307
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses266 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)513 / 514
History coverage158d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 47¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $121 +$19 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$11 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $50 −$48 -96%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $174 −$33 -19%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $170 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 09 $6 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $161 +$18 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $91 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 26 $105 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $5 $0 +4%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 25 $5 +$9 +188%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $101 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Apr 25 $189 +$25 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $121 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 67¢ $28 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $110 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $53 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.16 · official $9.16 (match) · 1417 history records