Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a0b…97e1 crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$227 (-1%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%110W / 6L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$12
weather 13% −$218
world 5% +$2
sports 2% $0
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 47 -2.0% -11.3% 94% 0% -13.1%
all 116 -0.8% -10.2% 95% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$50 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses110 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage130d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? Jun 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? Apr 10 $221 −$221 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10? Apr 10 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 8? Apr 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 8? Apr 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 8? Apr 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 8? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6? Apr 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on April 4? Apr 05 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 2? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 02 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 1? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $177 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 01 $295 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 30? Mar 31 $224 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 23-29? Mar 30 $95 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 March 23-29? Mar 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 28? Mar 29 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 26? Mar 26 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 26? Mar 26 $170 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 26? Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on March 25? Mar 26 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on March 23? Mar 24 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 24? Mar 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 23? Mar 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20? Mar 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on March 21? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on March 20? Mar 22 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 20? Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 1 Mar 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19 Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 19? Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Mar 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on March 18? Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 18? Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 1 Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 19? Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on March 18? Mar 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 18? Mar 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 63°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 18 $479 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17 Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $107 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? BUY No 98¢ $221 67d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $220 69d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 71d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 71d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $83 71d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $94 71d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $220 73d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $220 75d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? SELL No 100¢ $197 75d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $197 76d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $177 76d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $20 76d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $80 78d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $80 78d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 78d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 78d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $195 78d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $224 80d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $95 82d
Will XRP reach $2.00 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $100 82d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 26? SELL No 100¢ $194 82d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $224 82d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 82d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 26? SELL No 99¢ $14 82d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 26? SELL No 99¢ $15 82d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 26? SELL No 99¢ $10 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.14 · official $108.14 (match) · 250 history records