Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8A 0x8a09…e317 other 50 markets active 16d ago coverage 252d
RISKYcopy with care
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$154,755 (+76%) realized +$156,342 · open −$1,587
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate89%39W / 5L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$4,079per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$13,901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$151,558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 50% -66.6%
≤90d 3 +46.4% +32.4% 67% 67% +82.6%
all 44 +81.6% +64.3% 89% 70% +68.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.3% 70% +68.8%
10% ← realistic here +48.5% 57% +52.7%
15% +34.2% 45% +37.9%
20% +21.0% 43% +24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +115% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,036 vs −$854 · ×4.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.87 per $1 lost it wins $36.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$13,901
Realized+$156,342
Unrealized−$1,587
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses39 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage252d
Avg bet$4,079
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 7¢ 62¢ $757 $6,549 +$5,792 (+765%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 80¢ 46¢ $4,800 $2,730 −$2,070 (-43%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 64¢ 28¢ $3,954 $1,687 −$2,268 (-57%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 51¢ 25¢ $2,838 $1,386 −$1,452 (-51%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 73¢ 34¢ $2,798 $1,324 −$1,474 (-53%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 8¢ 5¢ $340 $225 −$115 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 02 $2,415 −$1,625 -67%
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 02 $100 +$38 +38%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 12 $6,249 +$10,515 +168%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $7,907 −$830 -10%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 11 $13,669 +$4,567 +33%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 01 $10,308 +$908 +9%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 24 $6,727 +$669 +10%
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 24 $7,479 +$2,019 +27%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 12 $29,950 +$23,564 +79%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 11 $91 +$27 +30%
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jan 11 $1,529 +$949 +62%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $3,681 −$260 -7%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 06 $11,400 +$8,936 +78%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 03 $1,190 +$134 +11%
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 03 $2,875 +$3,443 +120%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 02 $4,167 +$1,077 +26%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 01 $4,128 +$1,042 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 29 $4,465 +$2,631 +59%
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? Dec 29 $42 +$50 +119%
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? Dec 29 $3 +$4 +131%
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 29 $16 +$15 +94%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 13 $4,950 +$895 +18%
Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 29 $860 +$80 +9%
Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch? Nov 29 $508 +$800 +158%
Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch? Nov 29 $446 +$785 +176%
VOOI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 29 $7 +$1 +10%
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 29 $13 +$1 +9%
Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch? Nov 29 $60 +$8 +14%
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? Nov 28 $3,179 +$5,885 +185%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 26 $2,457 +$2,309 +94%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $3,615 +$630 +17%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $4,950 −$1,550 -31%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 24 $10,400 +$8,100 +78%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 24 $5,000 +$4,500 +90%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 21 $646 −$4 -1%
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 21 $3,400 +$2,003 +59%
Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 20 $150 +$30 +20%
Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 20 $415 +$75 +18%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Nov 20 $1,766 +$32 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Nov 18 $350 +$15 +4%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 17 $224 +$5 +2%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 23 $3,989 +$54,545 +1368%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 19 $11,113 +$16,126 +145%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 19 $2 +$2 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 37¢ $1,342 15d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 27¢ $1,572 15d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 21¢ $1,095 15d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 9¢ $790 15d
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 77¢ $138 15d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $48 15d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $4,525 15d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $1 31d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $1 32d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $9 32d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $3 32d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $1 32d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $1 33d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $6 33d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $164 33d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $29 33d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $702 33d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $4,003 36d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $738 36d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 28¢ $384 94d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 8¢ $100 94d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $1,000 94d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 25¢ $400 94d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $1,200 94d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $3 98d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $1 98d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $99 98d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $1 98d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $90 98d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $125 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,901.13 · official $13,901.51 (match) · 984 history records