trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $19 | +$20 | +106% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | Jun 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $18 | +$8 | +44% |
| Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 06 | $143 | +$31 | +22% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | Jun 03 | $68 | −$9 | -13% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | Jun 01 | $35 | +$16 | +45% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | May 31 | $35 | +$16 | +46% |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | May 30 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $18 | +$14 | +77% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | May 26 | $32 | +$6 | +19% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | May 25 | $35 | +$14 | +39% |
| Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | May 23 | $20 | +$8 | +40% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +38.3% | +25.1% | 75% | 50% | +29.4% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +25.2% | +13.3% | 77% | 69% | +11.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +25.2% | +13.3% | 77% | 69% | +11.8% |
| all | 13 | +25.2% | +13.3% | 77% | 69% | +11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +13.3% | 69% | +11.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +2.4% | 54% | +1.1% |
| 15% | -7.5% | 54% | -8.7% |
| 20% | -16.5% | 15% | -17.6% |