Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a08…0eec
world · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$286 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$110 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$449
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)13 / 37
History coverage22d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day155.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 29 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$28
14 days+$82
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $58 $49 −$9 (-16%)
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $52 $39 −$14 (-27%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $43 $29 −$14 (-32%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $34 $26 −$7 (-22%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 50¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Yes $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+45%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $13 $16 +$3 (+25%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes $9 $16 +$8 (+87%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? No 25¢ 18¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $12 $14 +$3 (+25%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $9 $12 +$4 (+45%)
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $6 $9 +$3 (+57%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes $12 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 33¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Rodina win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $8 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$20 +106%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $18 +$8 +44%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 06 $143 +$31 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 01 $35 +$16 +45%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? May 31 $35 +$16 +46%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? May 27 $18 +$14 +77%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $32 +$6 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 26% +$55
politics 25% +$24
finance 25% −$25
other 22% +$19
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 3h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 7h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 8h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY Yes $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +38.3% +25.1% 75% 50% +29.4%
≤30d 13 +25.2% +13.3% 77% 69% +11.8%
≤90d 13 +25.2% +13.3% 77% 69% +11.8%
all 13 +25.2% +13.3% 77% 69% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover155.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.3% 69% +11.8%
10% ← realistic here +2.4% 54% +1.1%
15% -7.5% 54% -8.7%
20% -16.5% 15% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.33 · official $448.91 (match) · 3500 history records