Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a07…1d4d
sports · 282 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6,615 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,127 · open −$337
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,262
Realized−$6,127
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses86 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions82
Markets (closed)200 / 282
History coverage16d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day61.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 82 History 200 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,472
7 days−$1,919
14 days−$5,700
30 days−$6,127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $512 $510 −$1 (-0%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 51¢ 48¢ $488 $455 −$33 (-7%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 84¢ 82¢ $438 $431 −$8 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Paraguay 91¢ 92¢ $340 $346 +$6 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $373 $320 −$53 (-14%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 84¢ 92¢ $207 $225 +$18 (+9%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $162 $192 +$31 (+19%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $167 $151 −$17 (-10%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $147 $149 +$2 (+2%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 8¢ 8¢ $117 $127 +$10 (+9%)
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 85¢ 83¢ $126 $124 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 73¢ 70¢ $125 $121 −$4 (-3%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $118 $114 −$4 (-3%)
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 72¢ $128 $113 −$15 (-11%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 61¢ $76 $91 +$15 (+20%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 73¢ 48¢ $132 $86 −$46 (-35%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? No 83¢ 91¢ $76 $84 +$7 (+10%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? No 61¢ 55¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 51¢ 78¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $80 $71 −$8 (-10%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 62¢ 32¢ $119 $60 −$59 (-49%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 59¢ 50¢ $72 $60 −$12 (-16%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 52¢ $25 $60 +$35 (+139%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 83¢ 80¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $40 +$379 +935%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 +$27 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $77 +$35 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,060 −$719 -68%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $143 −$143 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $166 −$166 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $218 −$218 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $934 +$14 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7 +$5 +65%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $111 −$4 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $229 −$229 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $85 +$94 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4,558 −$3,607 -79%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $127 +$55 +44%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $22 +$15 +65%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $118 +$62 +52%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 +$3 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $188 +$321 +170%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 10 $268 +$19 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $277 −$277 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $176 −$176 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $120 +$33 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $92 +$50 +54%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $292 −$77 -26%
Will Angola vs. Central African Republic end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $95 −$88 -92%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$38 +124%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $66 +$98 +149%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$2,899
sports 39% −$1,531
other 15% −$2,686
tech 3% +$494
finance 2% +$81
world 0% +$14
crypto 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $29 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $44 4h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 85¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +5.6% -4.5% 47% 41% -18.6%
≤30d 200 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 35% -18.9%
≤90d 200 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 35% -18.9%
all 200 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 35% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 35% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 30% -26.6%
15% -33.4% 27% -33.7%
20% -39.9% 20% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,262.25 · official $5,261.91 (match) · 1231 history records