Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a05…5c62 sports 203 markets active 208d ago coverage 134d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$195,974 (+12%) realized +$195,974 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%82W / 122L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$8,270per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,797
7 days−$2,797
14 days−$2,797
30 days−$2,797
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$140,963
other 20% +$5,774
crypto 8% +$2,430
tech 4% −$24,306
economics 2% −$445
world 2% −$1,213
culture 1% +$3,527
politics 0% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 204 +22.8% +11.1% 40% 35% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 35% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 33% -13.2%
15% -9.2% 29% -21.6%
20% -18.1% 25% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$10,062) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,229 vs −$4,517 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$195,974
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses82 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 203
History coverage134d
Avg bet$8,270
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 29 $3,222 −$2,797 -87%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 03 $2,705 +$42,100 +1556%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Paper Rex Oct 17 $8,571 −$8,571 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) Oct 17 $4,823 −$4,823 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Oct 01 $110 +$98 +89%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? Sep 29 $115 −$35 -31%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG Sep 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Sep 28 $4,079 −$253 -6%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 28 $670 +$56 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI Sep 28 $6,248 −$6,247 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision Sep 28 $520 −$20 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G Sep 28 $1,599 −$752 -47%
Will any other team win FISSURE Playground 2? Sep 28 $6,576 +$7 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 28 $5,540 +$2,267 +41%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 28 $9,852 −$2,589 -26%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $66,674 −$66,406 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Sep 28 $29 +$55 +189%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Sep 28 $4 +$136 +3565%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $1,911 −$1,911 -100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Sep 27 $10,062 −$10,062 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $19 +$22 +117%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $1,977 +$3,144 +159%
Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28? Sep 27 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Fulham end in a draw? Sep 27 $302 −$302 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs MIBR Sep 26 $18,647 −$18,647 -100%
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Aleksandar Vukic Sep 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs GIANTX Sep 26 $12,909 +$9,167 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $48,632 −$501 -1%
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 25 $151 +$43 +28%
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $290 −$15 -5%
Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $202 −$7 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 24 $375 −$350 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 24 $1,431 −$666 -47%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $5,718 −$47 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 24 $124 −$117 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? Sep 24 $5,897 +$1,867 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 24 $577 −$528 -92%
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $14 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $17,437 +$335 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $55,962 −$73 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 24 $3,321 +$269 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 24 $9,805 +$2,428 +25%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Sep 24 $46,872 −$350 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 23 $96 −$3,636 -3798%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $13,500 −$13,491 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $300 −$25 -8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $15 +$12,735 +84900%
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September? Sep 22 $3,874 +$336 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 20¢ $7,696 208d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 19¢ $36 208d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 76¢ $40,016 208d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 20¢ $1,950 208d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 5¢ $790 254d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 5¢ $84 254d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 11¢ $45 255d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 5¢ $5 255d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 5¢ $0 255d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 5¢ $20 255d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 5¢ $41 255d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 13¢ $6 257d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 13¢ $0 257d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 13¢ $130 257d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 13¢ $117 257d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 13¢ $8 258d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 13¢ $161 258d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) BUY 3DMAX 32¢ $4,792 268d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) BUY 3DMAX 31¢ $31 268d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $75 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $300 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $10 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $12 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $14 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $68 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $93 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $15 273d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $54 273d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $150 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2766 history records