Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8a01…940d other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$356 (-29%) realized −$354 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$21
14 days−$365
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$402
sports 8% −$1
crypto 4% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.8% +3.0% 67% 67% -13.8%
≤30d 8 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 38% -42.4%
≤90d 8 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 38% -42.4%
all 8 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 38% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 38% -42.4%
10% -44.1% 38% -47.9%
15% -49.5% 38% -52.9%
20% -54.5% 38% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$130 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$354
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 17h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $200 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $87 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $102 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 19¢ $20 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $81 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $208 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $102 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $203 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.06 · official $198.06 (match) · 15 history records