Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
89 0x89fc…b5c2 other 81 markets active 3h ago coverage 147d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,555 (+34%) realized +$16,421 · open +$134
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$1,116est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$1,951
30 days+$8,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$10,807
other 25% +$673
world 4% +$29
politics 1% +$446
crypto 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.1% +6.0% 50% 50% +23.2%
≤30d 14 +181.1% +154.3% 71% 71% +21.1%
≤90d 40 +55.1% +40.4% 45% 40% +16.0%
all 53 +52.5% +38.0% 47% 43% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.0% 43% +16.6%
10% +24.8% 38% +5.4%
15% ← realistic here +12.7% 28% -4.8%
20% +1.7% 23% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +101% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$51 · ×10.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.35 per $1 lost it wins $9.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$4,545
Realized+$16,421
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,116
Open positions28
Markets (closed)53 / 81
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$604
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $820 $913 +$93 (+11%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $582 $520 −$62 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $469 $484 +$16 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $401 $481 +$81 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $262 $328 +$66 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $350 $289 −$61 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $278 $241 −$36 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $260 $202 −$57 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $134 +$29 (+28%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $89 $117 +$29 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $78 $74 −$4 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $70 +$21 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $62 +$16 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $63 $58 −$4 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $58 +$6 (+12%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $60 $52 −$8 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $43 +$13 (+40%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $35 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $26 −$1 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$5 (-16%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $65 +$24 +37%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $31 +$534 +1702%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $4,425 +$1,392 +32%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 24 $817 −$126 -15%
Will Valencia be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $6 +$3 +59%
Will Getafe be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 24 $4 +$24 +598%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 24 $4,364 +$676 +16%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 24 $205 −$96 -47%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 24 $5,712 +$1,575 +28%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $4,581 +$2,493 +54%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 24 $266 −$60 -22%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $1,414 +$867 +61%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $4,230 +$1,545 +36%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $2,844 −$100 -4%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $895 +$1,317 +147%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $813 +$125 +15%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $443 −$32 -7%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,522 +$503 +33%
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $511 −$48 -9%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $140 −$9 -6%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $153 −$41 -27%
Will Bologna win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 16 $690 +$32 +5%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $4,032 +$1,333 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $20 −$11 -54%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 07 $21 −$1 -3%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $104 −$104 -100%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Mar 29 $200 +$129 +64%
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $167 −$106 -63%
Will Roma win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $311 −$73 -23%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 19 $17 −$17 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 19 $139 −$63 -46%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $63 −$19 -30%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $166 +$10 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 18 $48 −$35 -73%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $521 −$178 -34%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $368 −$117 -32%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 11 $32 −$8 -25%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 02 $92 −$8 -9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $228 +$67 +29%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $172 +$308 +179%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 27 $129 +$27 +21%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 26 $102 −$20 -20%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 26 $129 −$45 -35%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $96 +$86 +90%
Will Fenerbahçe win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 19 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $31 +$66 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $232 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,544.82 · official $4,544.73 (match) · 3500 history records