Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x89fb…fdfa other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate77%86W / 25L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$654
7 days−$72
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$79
politics 39% −$168
tech 12% +$145
crypto 3% +$7
world 2% +$119
finance 0% +$29
sports 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 19% -9.8%
≤30d 36 +2.4% -7.4% 97% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 36 +2.4% -7.4% 97% 25% -9.2%
all 111 +0.4% -9.2% 77% 21% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 21% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$602) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$105 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses86 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage274d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $420 +$8 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $421 +$30 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $420 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $395 +$4 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $401 +$43 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $784 +$13 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $774 +$10 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $722 +$53 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $819 −$816 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $603 +$103 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,431 +$7 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $602 +$77 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $731 +$21 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $600 +$1 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $502 +$80 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,246 +$6 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,240 +$5 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,212 +$29 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,101 +$38 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,129 +$44 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,124 +$5 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,088 +$11 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $400 +$5 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $995 +$82 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $345 +$41 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $326 +$19 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 +$32 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $350 +$7 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $197 +$44 +22%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $400 +$3 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 +$17 +12%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Dec 08 $450 +$49 +11%
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%? Dec 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 05 $130 −$8 -6%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 05 $2,523 −$168 -7%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 04 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 04 $120 +$5 +4%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 03 $848 −$558 -66%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 03 $363 +$32 +9%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 02 $3,982 +$664 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 02 $655 +$19 +3%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 01 $1,042 +$70 +7%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 01 $576 −$5 -1%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Nov 30 $180 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 30 $1,522 +$43 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 98¢ $420 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $420 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $421 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $395 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 90¢ $401 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $784 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $774 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 86¢ $819 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 93¢ $722 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 85¢ $603 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,438 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,431 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $602 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $601 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $731 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,252 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,246 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 100¢ $1,240 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $1,212 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $600 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 97¢ $528 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $601 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,124 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $500 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 99¢ $400 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 799 history records