Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f9…b9c5 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,083 (-11%) realized −$1,037 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$949
7 days+$1,812
14 days+$1,812
30 days+$1,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$646
sports 40% −$1,832
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +32.3% +19.7% 62% 62% +28.8%
≤30d 16 +32.3% +19.7% 62% 62% +28.8%
≤90d 37 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% -20.6%
all 37 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 38% -20.6%
10% -30.8% 38% -28.2%
15% -37.5% 38% -35.1%
20% -43.6% 35% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -44% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$205 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$1,037
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage66d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $492 $486 −$6 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 10¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $365 +$178 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $972 +$891 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $355 +$270 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $483 −$475 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $396 +$220 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $123 +$135 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$172 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $620 +$333 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $175 −$172 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$11 +163%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $109 +$87 +80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $127 −$4 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $110 +$313 +285%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $354 −$344 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $638 −$637 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 05 $7 +$7 +92%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $325 +$163 +50%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 04 $120 −$120 -100%
Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $583 −$580 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $560 +$551 +98%
Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $205 −$200 -97%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $200 −$200 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 May 03 $230 +$247 +107%
SC Braga vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5 May 03 $598 −$598 -100%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $501 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $167 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,863 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $79 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $154 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $22 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $685 21h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $127 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $115 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $150 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $101 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $336 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $208 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $123 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.40 · official $496.19 (match) · 247 history records