Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f9…eb5f crypto 946 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,651 (-7%) realized −$2,670 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate82%772W / 169L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,810
7 days−$1,801
14 days−$1,469
30 days−$1,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2,577
crypto 47% −$76
sports 1% −$60
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.6% -17.3% 80% 28% -42.3%
≤30d 84 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 29% -23.9%
≤90d 929 -4.3% -13.4% 82% 24% -16.5%
all 941 -4.5% -13.6% 82% 25% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -16.3%
10% -21.9% 14% -24.3%
15% -29.4% 9% -31.7%
20% -36.3% 5% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$2,670
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses772 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)941 / 946
History coverage91d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $202 $221 +$19 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $42 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,827 −$1,822 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,456 +$93 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $243 −$242 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$23 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $173 +$75 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $730 +$114 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $125 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $448 +$12 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $48 +$61 +128%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,535 +$240 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $463 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $33 18m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $66 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,512 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,548 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $243 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $249 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $706 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $844 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $294 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.78 · official $321.78 (match) · 2556 history records