Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f7…19e7 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 25% $0
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 47 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage274d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $75 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $1 $0 +25%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $13 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $6 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $39 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $40 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records