Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f7…f073 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$262 (-6%) realized −$257 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%46W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$270
7 days+$339
14 days−$287
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$865
sports 39% +$549
crypto 1% +$36
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +33.7% +21.0% 56% 56% +5.8%
≤30d 71 +19.6% +8.2% 42% 42% -16.2%
≤90d 90 +11.8% +1.1% 43% 43% -16.3%
all 99 +9.4% -1.1% 46% 40% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 40% -16.3%
10% -10.5% 40% -24.3%
15% -19.2% 39% -31.6%
20% -27.1% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$257
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 53
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions7
Markets (closed)99 / 106
History coverage246d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$200 +650%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $29 +$36 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $65 −$63 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $65 −$63 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$115 +388%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $44 +$39 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $82 +$215 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$76 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$56 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$23 +29%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +146%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $70 +$121 +172%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 41h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 41h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $29 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $29 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $77 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.73 · official $574.59 (match) · 168 history records