Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x89f7…1ec0 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,115 (+26%) realized +$8,099 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,431per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$2,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,912
7 days+$1,891
14 days+$2,004
30 days+$7,782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$2,065
sports 26% +$5,778
crypto 5% −$60
world 3% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 20% +0.0%
≤30d 7 +11.3% +0.7% 57% 29% +15.2%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 33% +14.7%
all 9 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 33% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 33% +14.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 11% +3.7%
15% -26.8% 11% -6.3%
20% -34.0% 11% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,601 vs −$30 · ×53.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×67.46 per $1 lost it wins $67.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2,133
Realized+$8,099
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2,431
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1,493 $1,519 +$25 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $563 $554 −$9 (-2%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $500 −$51 -10%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $13,021 +$1,970 +15%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,620 −$7 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,066 +$25 +2%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $1,666 −$46 -3%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,367 +$112 +5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $8,223 +$5,778 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 07 $15 −$14 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $999 +$118 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $448 1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,595 28h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 3d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $755 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $1,091 4d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $10,260 5d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,620 6d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 89¢ $1,621 6d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,561 7d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,480 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $15 8d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 15d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,991 15d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,013 15d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $49 17d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,494 17d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $121 17d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 91¢ $836 17d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $77 17d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $254 17d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $169 17d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $4 17d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 91¢ $496 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,132.56 · official $2,132.56 (match) · 102 history records