Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f6…9914 weather 1533 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$370 (+0%) realized +$343 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1491W / 32L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$218
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$631
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 249 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 1523 +2.6% -7.2% 98% 1% -10.3%
all 1523 +2.6% -7.2% 98% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 1% -18.9%
15% -24.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,352
Realized+$343
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1491 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1523 / 1533
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $800 $825 +$25 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $800 $801 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $540 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $172 −$84 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $300 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 38m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 38m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $24 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 39m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 41m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 44m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 44m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $800 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $501 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $201 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $500 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $300 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,351.58 · official $2,345.71 (match) · 3500 history records