Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x89f3…a0ad
sports · 23 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$536 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$577 · open +$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$652
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage43d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$203
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 58¢ 56¢ $410 $391 −$19 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $220 $261 +$41 (+18%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Cavaliers 30¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Cavaliers 24¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 +$5 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 −$14 -26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $626 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $118 −$5 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $226 −$60 -27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $409 −$148 -36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $259 +$20 +8%
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -47%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $22 −$2 -10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $166 −$156 -94%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $199 −$128 -65%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $139 −$129 -93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $227 +$89 +39%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $267 +$12 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $163 −$62 -38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $158 −$59 -37%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $80 −$10 -13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $125 +$14 +12%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $161 +$20 +12%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $188 −$12 -6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $130 +$51 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$506
other 38% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $2 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $1 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 66¢ $13 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $11 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 60¢ $12 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $11 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $11 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 57¢ $12 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 58¢ $12 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 62¢ $12 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 75¢ $11 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 76¢ $11 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $12 34m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 74¢ $15 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 70¢ $14 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 68¢ $3 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 68¢ $10 43m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 69¢ $10 43m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 68¢ $14 44m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 67¢ $13 44m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 67¢ $14 44m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 67¢ $10 44m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 67¢ $14 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 0% -15.2%
≤30d 12 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 0% -29.4%
≤90d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 41% 18% -23.6%
all 22 -22.7% -30.1% 41% 18% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 18% -23.6%
10% -36.8% 9% -30.9%
15% -42.9% 9% -37.6%
20% -48.5% 0% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.26 · official $651.08 (match) · 775 history records