Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89f2…0da9 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-25%) realized −$55 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$9
other 46% −$16
crypto 2% −$5
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.0% -36.7% 29% 29% -31.9%
≤30d 14 -30.0% -36.7% 29% 29% -31.9%
≤90d 20 -44.7% -50.0% 25% 25% -36.3%
all 20 -44.7% -50.0% 25% 25% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.0% 25% -36.3%
10% -54.8% 25% -42.4%
15% -59.2% 20% -47.9%
20% -63.2% 15% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage34d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $24 $43 +$19 (+80%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Mi (-1.5) vs Yoruk (+1.5) Mi 61¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 17¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 15¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 42¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? Yes 18¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$7 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$24 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Set Handicap: Mi (-1.5) vs Yoruk (+1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$14 +140%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major May 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $18 10h
Set Handicap: Mi (-1.5) vs Yoruk (+1.5) BUY Mi 61¢ $24 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 47¢ $14 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $15 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 22h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes $5 22h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $10 33h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 18¢ $2 32d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY No $1 33d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? BUY No $1 33d
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major SELL FaZe Clan 100¢ $4 34d
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major BUY FaZe Clan 79¢ $3 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 42¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.45 · official $39.83 · 28 history records