Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x89ee…e1e0 crypto 1485 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$235 (-9%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%563W / 920L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$12
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$49
sports 9% −$112
other 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -16.8% -24.8% 54% 51% -15.6%
≤30d 181 -7.1% -15.9% 40% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 1483 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 37% -15.0%
all 1483 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 37% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 36% -23.1%
15% -29.3% 33% -30.5%
20% -36.3% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses563 / 920
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1483 / 1485
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1483 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $0 $0 -81%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$9 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 18h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 20h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records