Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x89e5…6f7a other 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 1143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+1%) realized +$166 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%76W / 59L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$523
14 days−$103
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$56
other 2% +$31
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
weather 0% −$6
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 73% 20% -17.7%
≤30d 57 -8.5% -17.2% 74% 42% -9.4%
≤90d 96 -23.0% -30.4% 58% 35% -9.0%
all 135 -20.6% -28.2% 56% 40% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 40% -9.2%
10% -35.1% 27% -17.9%
15% -41.3% 16% -25.8%
20% -47.1% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$53 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1143d coverage
Net worth$498
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses76 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions44
Markets (closed)135 / 179
History coverage1143d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $355 $354 −$2 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+38%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-62%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 59¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+146%)
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 51¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+143%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+135%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No 54¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $336 +$21 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $313 +$23 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $297 +$15 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $234 +$64 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $543 −$309 -57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,004 −$559 -56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $501 +$54 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$11 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 +$4 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $942 +$79 +8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $804 +$138 +17%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $604 +$167 +28%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $703 −$371 -53%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $903 +$113 +12%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $798 +$116 +14%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $729 +$70 +10%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $701 +$28 +4%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $702 +$59 +8%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $661 +$48 +7%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $600 +$65 +11%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $25 +$7 +29%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $562 +$61 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $28 +$11 +39%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $1 $0 +20%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $408 +$162 +40%
Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 4.5 May 30 $351 +$57 +16%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5 May 30 $201 −$200 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $2 +$1 +59%
Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 27 $201 +$27 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +39%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1 +$1 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $356 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $336 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $336 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $313 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $297 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $234 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $234 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $543 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 39¢ $445 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,004 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,001 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $20 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $60 5d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 53¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $942 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $804 7d
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $604 8d
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 42¢ $332 8d
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $703 8d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 9d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 9d
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 10d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 68¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.06 · official $497.90 (match) · 274 history records